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# Brazil Election 2026: Lula Wins Runoff, What Happens Next
- URL: https://www.gessymorgan.com/brazil-election-2026-lula/
- Published: 2026-10-26T12:34:46.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-26T12:34:47.000Z
- Description: Lula came from behind to win Brazil's 2026 runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, who now wants the vote annulled. Here are the results, both sides' positions and what happens before the January 5 inauguration.
- Author: Gessy Morgan
- Tags: World

⚡

**The short version**
- Lula won the October 25, 2026 runoff with 51.79% of valid votes to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, after finishing second in the first round.
- Flávio Bolsonaro refuses to concede and says he will seek to annul the vote over a two-hour extension of polling hours that both campaigns had requested.
- Lula's fourth term is due to begin on January 5, 2027, facing a Congress where Bolsonaro's Liberal Party is the largest bloc.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25, 2026, beating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79% of valid votes to 48.21%, according to the electoral court's final count as compiled on the [2026 Brazilian general election page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%5FBrazilian%5Fgeneral%5Felection?ref=localhost). The result gives Lula a fourth, non-consecutive term, due to begin on January 5, 2027\. Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede and says he will ask the courts to annul the vote.

That is why Lula is trending: a come-from-behind win that the final polls did not predict, followed by a fight over a last-minute extension of voting hours. Below is what happened, what each side says, and what to watch next. As of October 26, 2026, no court had accepted any challenge to the result.

## When Brazil voted: two rounds in October

Brazil elected a president, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 54 of the 81 senators, every state governor and the state legislatures in 2026\. The first round was held on October 4\. Because no presidential candidate won a majority of valid votes, the top two met in a runoff on October 25.

More than 158 million people were registered to vote, according to [The Rio Times' runoff guide](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-runoff-october-25-2026-flavio-bolsonaro-lula/?ref=localhost). Voting is compulsory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70 and optional for 16- and 17-year-olds and people over 70\. Governor runoffs took place on the same day in five states and the Federal District.

## The candidates

- **Lula da Silva (Workers' Party, PT):** the incumbent, who first governed from 2003 to 2010 and returned after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, as [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/brazil-presidential-runoff-lula-flavio-bolsonaro/?ref=localhost) recounts. Lula turns 81 on October 27\. His running mate was Vice President Geraldo Alckmin.
- **Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL):** a senator and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from public office until 2030 and is under house arrest over a coup attempt. His running mate was Alfredo Gaspar.

Ten other candidates ran in the first round, including Augusto Cury, Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado. None reached 3% of the vote.

## First round and the final polls

Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round with 47.03% (about 56.1 million votes) to Lula's 45.16% (about 53.9 million), according to [InfoMoney's live coverage](https://www.infomoney.com.br/politica/ao-vivo-eleicoes-segundo-turno-2026/?ref=localhost). That two-point gap carried into the runoff campaign.

The last polls pointed the same way. The final Quaest survey, [published by Exame](https://exame.com/brasil/pesquisa-quaest-na-vespera-do-2o-turno-flavio-bolsonaro-tem-51-e-lula-49/?ref=localhost) on October 24, gave Flávio 51% of valid votes and Lula 49%, a statistical tie within its two-point margin of error. Datafolha's final poll showed the same 51 to 49 split, [A Notícia do Vale reported](https://anoticiadovale.com/2026/10/25/datafolha-e-quaest-mostram-flavio-com-51-e-lula-49-dos-votos-validos/?ref=localhost), citing g1\. One Brazilian forecasting model even gave Flávio an 82% chance of winning, InfoMoney noted.

![Bar chart showing Lula rising from 45.16% in the first round to 51.79% in the runoff, overtaking Flávio Bolsonaro, who went from 47.03% to 48.21%.](https://www.gessymorgan.com/content/images/2026/10/brazil-election-2026-lula-chart.png)

How the vote flipped. Sources: TSE count via Wikipedia, InfoMoney, The Rio Times

## The runoff result

The runoff reversed the first round. With every polling section counted, Lula received 64,256,232 votes and Flávio 59,826,041, a gap of about 4.43 million. Turnout rose to 80.78% and abstention fell to about 19.2%, according to [The Rio Times' results page](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-election-results-2026/?ref=localhost).

The win set several records. It is the first time since Brazil returned to democracy that the first-round runner-up went on to win, CBS News reported. Lula becomes the first person elected president four times, and his vote total is the highest any Brazilian presidential candidate has received.

### Why the result flipped

Analysts cited in Brazilian coverage pointed to a late swing in Minas Gerais, higher turnout and an aggressive digital campaign run through WhatsApp channels. [Times Brasil](https://timesbrasil.com.br/eleicoes-2026/lula-vence-apos-virada-inedita-no-segundo-turno/?ref=localhost) also listed a late package of government measures, including a Bolsa Família increase and debt relief for micro-entrepreneurs. These are analysts' explanations, not official findings.

![Fact card showing the October 25, 2026 runoff result: Lula 51.79% and Flávio Bolsonaro 48.21%, a margin of about 4.43 million votes, 80.78% turnout and a January 5, 2027 inauguration.](https://www.gessymorgan.com/content/images/2026/10/brazil-election-2026-lula-facts.png)

Brazil 2026 runoff at a glance. Sources: TSE count via Wikipedia, The Rio Times, Senado Notícias

## The voting-hours dispute

On election day both campaigns asked for polls to stay open longer. Lula's side cited bus shortages in São Paulo and Salvador. Flávio's side cited heavy rain and flooding in the south, where he was favoured.

Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ruled minutes before the 5 p.m. close that voting could run until 7 p.m., then clarified that only stations still operating could stay open, according to CBS News and [IBTimes UK](https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/flavio-bolsonaro-seeks-brazil-election-annulment-1827736?ref=localhost). The confusion delayed the count by two hours, and it is still unclear how many stations stayed open late.

In Bahia, the regional electoral court ordered the arrest of Salvador's mobility secretary after buses were kept in depots. Superior Electoral Court president Kassio Nunes Marques, whom Jair Bolsonaro appointed to the Supreme Court, said the extension did not change the outcome, [Seoul Economic Daily](https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/10/26/brazils-bolsonaro-rejects-election-loss-seeks-annulment?ref=localhost) reported, citing wire services.

## What each side is saying

**Flávio Bolsonaro** told supporters in Brasília that his lawyers would seek to annul the runoff. "I will not accept that this rule was changed in the middle of the game," he said, as quoted by IBTimes UK. His allies point out that Zanin once worked as Lula's lawyer, and he argues that voters in different states did not vote under equal conditions.

**Lula** told supporters, "This was a defeat for denialism and lies," CBS News reported. He also pledged to work with the Congress that voters chose, according to InfoMoney.

Legal experts quoted by IBTimes UK doubted the grounds were strong enough to overturn the result. Seoul Economic Daily noted that the size of the margin, and the Bolsonaro campaign's own request for extra time, make a reversal unlikely.

## What is at stake

The two campaigns offered sharply different programmes, as summarised in The Rio Times' platform comparison and CBS News:

- **Economy and taxes:** Lula pledged to keep the current fiscal framework, back ending the six-day work week and expand measures such as free weekend public transport. Flávio proposed deep spending cuts, fewer ministries, lower taxes on consumption and fuel, and more privatisation.
- **Crime:** Flávio put security at the centre, proposing to label major gangs as narco-terrorist groups and to build federal maximum-security prisons. Lula proposed a new Public Security Ministry and more money for states and cities.
- **Foreign policy and trade:** Lula stresses diversifying trade partners and ties with BRICS and the Global South. Flávio pledged to repair relations with the United States and Argentina. Most Brazilian goods face an extra 25% US tariff, The Rio Times notes.
- **Environment:** Lula targets zero deforestation by 2030\. Flávio pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2029 and to speed up licensing.

Lula will also face a harder Congress. Flávio's PL won the largest bloc in the Chamber of Deputies, 121 of 513 seats in the Wikipedia tally, and Times Brasil reports that Lula's economic team has warned that spending must be reined in.

## Reaction at home and abroad

Leaders including Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum, Paraguay's Santiago Peña, Chile's José Antonio Kast, France's Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Lula, [CNN Brasil reported](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/internacional/lula-reeleito-lideres-mundiais-reagem-a-4a-vitoria-eleitoral-do-presidente/?ref=localhost). Before the vote, US President Donald Trump said he was following the election but did not endorse either candidate. [Al Jazeera's live coverage](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/10/25/brazil-election-results-2026-live-polls-close-in-lula-bolsonaro-face-off?ref=localhost) described the contest as a heated, tight runoff.

## What happens next

- **The legal challenge:** Watch whether Flávio's team files a formal annulment request and how the electoral court responds. As of October 26, no filing or ruling had been reported in the sources cited here.
- **Bus disruption inquiry:** The electoral court said it was reviewing reports about bus problems in Bahia.
- **Inauguration:** Under Constitutional Amendment 111 of 2021, presidents now take office on January 5 instead of January 1, and governors on January 6, [Senado Notícias explains](https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/audios/2026/01/posse-presidencial-em-2027-sera-em-5-1-governadores-tomam-posse-no-dia-6?ref=localhost). Lula's new term is due to start on January 5, 2027.
- **Governing:** Lula will need allies in a Congress where the Bolsonaro camp is stronger than before.

![Timeline of Brazil's 2026 presidential election from the October 4 first round to Lula's planned January 5, 2027 inauguration.](https://www.gessymorgan.com/content/images/2026/10/brazil-election-2026-lula-timeline.png)

Brazil's 2026 election: key dates. Sources: InfoMoney, Exame, CBS News, IBTimes UK, Senado Notícias

## Our take

Based on the reporting cited above, the outcome itself looks secure. The margin is above four million votes, the electoral court has declared a winner, and the annulment bid rests on an extension that both campaigns requested. The harder questions are political: a contested win, a stronger opposition in Congress and a fight over election-day procedures could make Lula's fourth term tougher to govern than his third.

For another high-stakes vote this week, see our [Israel election 2026 explainer](https://www.gessymorgan.com/israel-election-2026/). US readers can find dates and polling-place help in our [Election Day 2026 guide](https://www.gessymorgan.com/election-day-2026-midterms-guide/).

## Frequently asked questions

### Who won the Brazil election 2026?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the October 25 runoff with 51.79% of valid votes (64,256,232) against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21% (59,826,041). Brazil's electoral court declared him re-elected on election night. Bolsonaro has not conceded.

### When does Lula take office for his fourth term?

Lula's new term is due to begin on January 5, 2027\. A 2021 constitutional amendment moved presidential inaugurations from January 1 to January 5, and governors now take office on January 6\. 2027 is the first time the new dates apply.

### Why does Flávio Bolsonaro want the election annulled?

He objects to a Supreme Court order that extended voting by two hours, arguing it was applied unevenly and changed the rules mid-vote. The justice who issued it, Cristiano Zanin, previously worked as Lula's lawyer. Both campaigns had asked for extra time in different regions.

### Was the result expected?

No. Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round 47.03% to 45.16%, and the final Datafolha and Quaest polls both had him at 51% of valid votes to Lula's 49%, within the margin of error. It is the first time since Brazil returned to democracy that the first-round runner-up won the runoff.

### Can the result be overturned?

Legal experts quoted in international coverage doubted the challenge has strong grounds, and the electoral court's president said the extension did not change the outcome. As of October 26, 2026, no court had accepted any challenge. Official updates are published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

## Sources

1. [2026 Brazilian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%5FBrazilian%5Fgeneral%5Felection?ref=localhost), Wikipedia
2. [Lula wins fourth term as Brazil's president, beating Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff, but Bolsonaro rejects results](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/brazil-presidential-runoff-lula-flavio-bolsonaro/?ref=localhost), CBS News
3. [Flavio Bolsonaro Blasts 'Lula's Friends' in the Supreme Court, Vows To Seek Annulment of Brazil's Election](https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/flavio-bolsonaro-seeks-brazil-election-annulment-1827736?ref=localhost), IBTimes UK
4. [Brazil's Bolsonaro Rejects Election Loss, Seeks Annulment](https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/10/26/brazils-bolsonaro-rejects-election-loss-seeks-annulment?ref=localhost), Seoul Economic Daily
5. [Lula reeleito: Líderes mundiais reagem à 4ª vitória eleitoral do presidente](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/internacional/lula-reeleito-lideres-mundiais-reagem-a-4a-vitoria-eleitoral-do-presidente/?ref=localhost), CNN Brasil
6. [Eleições 2026: Lula é eleito presidente do Brasil; veja o resultado nos estados](https://www.infomoney.com.br/politica/ao-vivo-eleicoes-segundo-turno-2026/?ref=localhost), InfoMoney
7. [Brazil Election Results 2026: Runoff Live Count, October 25](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-election-results-2026/?ref=localhost), The Rio Times
8. [Brazil Election 2026: Lula vs Flávio Runoff on 25 October](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-runoff-october-25-2026-flavio-bolsonaro-lula/?ref=localhost), The Rio Times
9. [Pesquisa presidente Quaest: na véspera do 2º turno, Flávio Bolsonaro tem 51% e Lula, 49%](https://exame.com/brasil/pesquisa-quaest-na-vespera-do-2o-turno-flavio-bolsonaro-tem-51-e-lula-49/?ref=localhost), Exame
10. [Posse presidencial em 2027 será em 5/1; governadores tomam posse no dia 6](https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/audios/2026/01/posse-presidencial-em-2027-sera-em-5-1-governadores-tomam-posse-no-dia-6?ref=localhost), Senado Notícias (Agência Senado)
11. [Datafolha e Quaest mostram Flávio com 51% e Lula 49% dos votos válidos](https://anoticiadovale.com/2026/10/25/datafolha-e-quaest-mostram-flavio-com-51-e-lula-49-dos-votos-validos/?ref=localhost), A Notícia do Vale
12. [Lula vence após virada inédita no segundo turno](https://timesbrasil.com.br/eleicoes-2026/lula-vence-apos-virada-inedita-no-segundo-turno/?ref=localhost), Times Brasil
13. [Brazil election results 2026 updates: Lula beats Bolsonaro in tight race](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/10/25/brazil-election-results-2026-live-polls-close-in-lula-bolsonaro-face-off?ref=localhost), Al Jazeera

## How we wrote this

GessyMorgan explainers are built from public reporting and official sources. This post draws on the 13 sources listed above, each linked where we use it. It was drafted with AI assistance and checked against those sources before publishing. We did not test products, attend events or interview anyone for this article. Facts are current as of October 26, 2026, and we update the post when they change.